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Recent data
analysis by Pew Research looked at the future of Christianity
in the United States, and what it found was startling. By sometime around
2045, only about half of Americans could identify as Christian. If trends
continue, it could fall to as little as 35 percent by 2070, and certainly no
more than 54 percent. Simultaneously, the rise of the “nones” means there will
likely be as many Americans with no religion by then.
There have
been plenty of articles by very serious people who wring their hands and bemoan the
loss of a common U.S. religion (and who ignore that there have always been
Muslims, Jews, deists, atheists, agnostics, and other non-Christians here). Where will communities meet and bond? Where
will morality come from? What will tie people together? However, such questions
entirely miss the point that religion in this country has been a singularly divisive factor for well over a decade and is only becoming
more so.
The numbers
paint a clear picture of what is happening. As American youths leave home, they
leave the faiths of their parents and never return. This is in great part
because the teachings of most churches in the U.S. are fundamentally
at odds with what young people believe: particularly on topics like abortion,
marriage equality, birth control, and premarital sex. They simply fail to see
how such out-of-touch institutions are relevant.
Consider
these numbers. Among members of the 20 largest denominations in the U.S.,
approximately 88 percent (weighted by membership) oppose same-sex marriage.
Liberal mainline denominations (such as Episcopalians and Unitarians) have been
in steep decline for decades, and account for only a tiny fraction of the U.S.
religious landscape. Other mainline denominations (like Methodists) still
oppose same-sex marriage and abortion. These denominations, whatever their
political bent, are so tiny after years of decline that they really only
account for a couple points of the American population. Conversely, 88 percent
of 18- to 29-year-olds believe that abortion should remain legal in some or all
circumstances, per a recent Gallup poll. Even five years ago, support for same-sex marriage was 79
percent among this cohort, and it’s certainly higher now.
It also
doesn’t help that major denominations have tarnished themselves with their
handling of sexual harassment and assault. The Catholic Church, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (Mormons), and the Southern Baptist Convention have all been repeatedly rocked with
revelations of how they tolerate, mishandle, and cover up sexual misconduct and
crimes.
The most
crucial factor, though, is how Christianity has slowly become primarily a
political identity for many (overwhelmingly conservative) people. Over the past
40 years, membership in nice, bland, mainline Protestantism has plummeted, from 30 percent of the public down
to 10 percent. Conversely, evangelical membership (and the number of white
evangelicals) boomed in the 1970s and ’80s and then slowly declined. But
evangelical groups are still much larger than the mainline Protestant denominations,
constituting about 23 percent of adults and up to 37 percent of
Americans claiming to be “born again.” Because white
evangelicals are one of the most consistently conservative groups in the country,
the result is that people who identify as Christian or attend church frequently
are far more likely also to identify as Republican.
Black churches
have held steady for decades at about 8 percent of the population.
They are still associated with social justice goals, but they can also tend
toward social conservatism, which can produce tension. For example, the Black Lives Matter movement’s leadership featured many LGBTQ people, who had a somewhat limited or
uneasy working relationship with churches. Latinos were
traditionally part of the Catholic Church. However, traditionally white
evangelical denominations have had some luck luring Latinos away with social conservatism and the false
machismo projected by Republicans, which explains some of the electoral shift seen in 2020.
Just as
those who attend church frequently tend to be Republican, the converse is also
true: Those with no religion are far more likely to be Democrats. Data analysis
by Ryan Burge shows that white evangelicals have
had a stranglehold on the GOP for over two decades and form a clear majority of
the GOP, alongside conservative Catholics. However, by 2018, the “nones” represented a plurality (28 percent) of Democrats, whose gains have come at the
expense of evangelicals, mainlines, and Catholics within the party. Today,
almost half of Gen Z has no religion, along with 51 percent
of white women.
Polling data
collected by Life Way Research (a subsidiary business of the
Southern Baptist Convention) supports these suppositions. A 2017 survey of 2,002 U.S. adults age 23 to
30 who attended a Protestant church two times or more a month for at least a
year in high school found that 66 percent had stopped attending church. Seventy
percent of those cited religious, ethical, or political beliefs for dropping
out. Other major reasons cited included
hypocrisy, churches being judgmental, and a lack of anything in common with
other people at the church.
The real
danger of this widening schism is not a lack of shared sense of community, or
people not doing enough charitable work. The danger lies in this creating the
conditions for a future that looks more like present-day Russia or Iran.
Conservative
Christians have a deep sense of victimhood and fear about a secular America and are
willing to end democracy to prevent it. As David Frum noted, “If conservatives
become convinced that they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon
conservatism, they will abandon democracy.”
It has not
gone unnoticed that Republicans are increasingly claiming the mantle of being Christian Nationalists. A recent poll found that although
57 percent of Republicans recognize that declaring the U.S. a
“Christian nation” is unconstitutional, over 60 percent would support it. To achieve enforcement of an
unpopular set of religious beliefs amid a population that is increasingly
ambivalent or hostile to the dominant (conservative) strain of religion in the
U.S., the GOP is already instituting increasingly undemocratic processes, insurrections, and efforts to overturn
legitimate elections and is installing religious zealots in positions of power.
I feel like
I should not have to write this, but having conservative religions joined at
the hip with an authoritarian single-party state can only end badly. There are
two awful examples literally in the headlines today.
First there
is the Russian Orthodox Church, headed by Patriarch Kirill. He’s been one of Vladimir
Putin’s most loyal allies and has been willing to put the church’s blessing on
virtually anything Putin does. This includes supporting Russian actions in
Ukraine in the name of stamping out the corrupting Western influence of
homosexuality and protecting the Russky mir (Russian world). More
recently, he has declared that dying in battle washes away all of one’s sins.
Having a church that is simply another media arm for an authoritarian
government is far from ideal. But at least the Russian population’s belief
systems are still generally aligned with the dominant church. On top of the fascism,
Russian Orthodox church leaders have made themselves obscenely wealthy by supporting Putin’s kleptocracy.
What we’re
seeing in Iran is what happens when a sclerotic, gerontocratic, authoritarian
theocracy tries to impose its will on a younger population that no longer
accepts the legitimacy of the government and also rejects some of its core
religious teachings. Protests erupted over 22-year-old Mahsa Amini being tortured and killed by
“morality police” for wearing her hijab the “wrong” way. Women have responded
by tearing off their head scarves and burning them. Men have attacked police,
and riots have racked the country for weeks. The internet has been shut down,
and at least 75 people have been killed so far. The Iranian regime has reportedly
lost control of a predominantly Kurdish town on
the border as well.
This is what
the U.S. has in store if we continue along the path we’re going down:
Christianity is becoming primarily a political identity in service of an
ideology dedicated to creating a single-party theocratic state. If recent
events are any guide, Christianity in the U.S. is on a path either to being little more than a corrupted tool of fascism (as in Russia) or becoming a
violent, oppressive, and omnipresent force (as in Iran) against which the
population can achieve change only through revolution.