Matt Hongoltz-Hetling

The post The Anti-Vax Movement and the Medical Freedom Hustle appeared first on The Nation.
Matt Hongoltz-Hetling
The post The Anti-Vax Movement and the Medical Freedom Hustle appeared first on The Nation.
For three years now, the debate over the origins of the coronavirus pandemic has ping-ponged between two big ideas: that SARS-CoV-2 spilled into human populations directly from a wild-animal source, and that the pathogen leaked from a lab. Through a swirl of data obfuscation by Chinese authorities and politicalization within the United States, and rampant speculation from all corners of the world, many scientists have stood by the notion that this outbreak—like most others—had purely natural roots. But that hypothesis has been missing a key piece of proof: genetic evidence from the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, showing that the virus had infected creatures for sale there.
This week, an international team of virologists, genomicists, and evolutionary biologists may have finally found crucial data to help fill that knowledge gap. A new analysis of genetic sequences collected from the market shows that raccoon dogs being illegally sold at the venue could have been carrying and possibly shedding the virus at the end of 2019. It’s some of the strongest support yet, experts told me, that the pandemic began when SARS-CoV-2 hopped from animals into humans, rather than in an accident among scientists experimenting with viruses.
“This really strengthens the case for a natural origin,” says Seema Lakdawala, a virologist at Emory University who wasn’t involved in the research. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist involved in the research, told me, “This is a really strong indication that animals at the market were infected. There’s really no other explanation that makes any sense.”
The findings won’t fully silence the entrenched voices on either side of the origins debate. But the new analysis may offer some of the clearest and most compelling evidence that the world will ever get in support of an animal origin for the virus that, in just over three years, has killed nearly 7 million people worldwide.
[Read: The lab leak will haunt us forever]
The genetic sequences were pulled out of swabs taken in and near market stalls around the pandemic’s start. They represent the first bits of raw data that researchers outside of China’s academic institutions and their direct collaborators have had access to. Late last week, the data were quietly posted by researchers affiliated with the country’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, on an open-access genomic database called GISAID. By almost pure happenstance, scientists in Europe, North America, and Australia spotted the sequences, downloaded them, and began an analysis.
The samples were already known to be positive for the coronavirus, and had been scrutinized before by the same group of Chinese researchers who uploaded the data to GISAID. But that prior analysis, released as a preprint publication in February 2022, asserted that “no animal host of SARS-CoV-2 can be deduced.” Any motes of coronavirus at the market, the study suggested, had most likely been chauffeured in by infected humans, rather than wild creatures for sale.
The new analysis, led by Kristian Andersen, Edward Holmes, and Michael Worobey—three prominent researchers who have been looking into the virus’s roots—shows that that may not be the case. Within about half a day of downloading the data from GISAID, the trio and their collaborators discovered that several market samples that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were also coming back chock-full of animal genetic material—much of which was a match for the common raccoon dog. Because of how the samples were gathered, and because viruses can’t persist by themselves in the environment, the scientists think that their findings could indicate the presence of a coronavirus-infected raccoon dog in the spots where the swabs were taken. Unlike many of the other points of discussion that have been volleyed about in the origins debate, the genetic data are “tangible,” Alex Crits-Christoph, a computational biologist and one of the scientists who worked on the new analysis, told me. “And this is the species that everyone has been talking about.”
Finding the genetic material of virus and mammal so closely co-mingled—enough to be extracted out of a single swab—isn’t perfect proof, Lakdawala told me. “It’s an important step; I’m not going to diminish that,” she said. Still, the evidence falls short of, say, isolating SARS-CoV-2 from a free-ranging raccoon dog or, even better, uncovering a viral sample swabbed from a mammal for sale at Huanan from the time of the outbreak’s onset. That would be the virological equivalent of catching a culprit red-handed. But “you can never go back in time and capture those animals,” says Gigi Gronvall, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. And to researchers’ knowledge, “raccoon dogs were not tested at the market and had likely been removed prior to the authorities coming in,” Andersen wrote to me in an email. He underscored that the findings, although an important addition, are not “direct evidence of infected raccoon dogs at the market.”
Still, the findings don’t stand alone. “Do I believe there were infected animals at the market? Yes, I do,” Andersen told me. “Does this new data add to that evidence base? Yes.” The new analysis builds on extensive previous research that points to the market as the source of the earliest major outbreak of SARS-CoV-2: Many of the earliest known COVID-19 cases of the pandemic were clustered roughly in the market’s vicinity. And the virus’s genetic material was found in many samples swabbed from carts and animal-processing equipment at the venue, as well as parts of nearby infrastructure, such as storehouses, sewage wells, and water drains. Raccoon dogs, creatures commonly bred for sale in China, are also already known to be one of many mammal species that can easily catch and spread the coronavirus. All of this left one main hole in the puzzle to fill: clear-cut evidence that raccoon dogs and the virus were in the exact same spot at the market, close enough that the creatures might have been infected and, possibly, infectious. That’s what the new analysis provides. Think of it as finding the DNA of an investigation’s main suspect at the scene of the crime.
The findings don’t rule out the possibility that other animals may have been carrying SARS-CoV-2 at Huanan. Raccoon dogs, if they were infected, may not even be the creatures who passed the pathogen on to us. Which means the search for the virus’s many wild hosts will need to plod on. “Do we know the intermediate host was raccoon dogs? No,” Andersen wrote to me, using the term for an animal that can ferry a pathogen between other species. “Is it high up on my list of potential hosts? Yes, but it’s definitely not the only one.”
On Tuesday, the researchers presented their findings at a hastily scheduled meeting of the World Health Organization’s Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens, which was also attended by several of the Chinese researchers responsible for the original analysis, according to multiple researchers who were not present but were briefed about it before and after by multiple people who were there. Shortly after the meeting, the Chinese team’s preprint went into review at a Nature Research journal—suggesting that a new version was being prepared for publication. (I reached out to the WHO for comment and will update this story when I have more information.)
At this point, it’s still unclear why the sequences were posted to GISAID last week. They also vanished from the database shortly after appearing, without explanation. When I emailed George Gao, the former China CDC director-general and the lead author on the original Chinese analysis, asking for his team’s rationale, I didn’t immediately receive a response. Given what was in the GISAID data, it does seem that raccoon dogs could have been introduced into and clarified the origins narrative far sooner—at least a year ago, and likely more.
China has, for years, been keen on pushing the narrative that the pandemic didn’t start within its borders. In early 2020, a Chinese official suggested that the novel coronavirus may have emerged from a U.S. Army lab in Maryland. The notion that a dangerous virus sprang out from wet-market mammals echoed the beginnings of the SARS-CoV-1 epidemic two decades ago—and this time, officials immediately shut down the Huanan market, and vehemently pushed back against assertions that live animals being sold illegally in the country were to blame; a WHO investigation in March 2021 took the same line. “No verified reports of live mammals being sold around 2019 were found,” the report stated. But just three months later, in June 2021, a team of researchers published a study documenting tens of thousands of mammals for sale in wet markets in Wuhan between 2017 and late 2019, including at Huanan. The animals were kept in largely illegal, cramped, and unhygienic settings—conditions conducive to viral transmission—and among them were more than 1,000 raccoon dogs. Holmes himself had been at the market in 2014 and snapped a photo at Stall 29, clearly showing a raccoon dog in a cage; another set of images from the venue, captured by a local in December 2019 and later shared on Weibo, caught the animals on film as well—right around the time that the first recorded SARS-CoV-2 infections in humans occurred.
And yet, Chinese researchers maintained their stance. As Jon Cohen reported for Science magazine last year, scientists from several of China’s largest academic institutions posted a preprint in September 2021 concluding that a massive nationwide survey of bats—the likeliest original source of the coronavirus before it jumped into an intermediate host, such as raccoon dogs, and then into us—had turned up no relatives of SARS-CoV-2. The implication, the team behind the paper asserted, was that relatives of the coronavirus were “extremely rare” in the region, making it unlikely that the pandemic had started there. The findings directly contradicted others showing that cousins of SARS-CoV-2 were indeed circulating in China’s bats. (Local bats have also been found to harbor viruses related to SARS-CoV-1.)
The original Chinese analysis of the Huanan market swabs, from February 2022, also stuck with China’s party line on the pandemic. One of the report’s graphs suggested that viral material at the market had been mixed up with genetic material of multiple animal species—a data trail that should have led to further inquiry or conclusions, but that the Chinese researchers appear to have ignored. Their report noted only humans as being linked to SARS-CoV-2, stating that its findings “highly” suggested that any viral material at the market came from people (at least one of whom, presumably, picked it up elsewhere and ferried it into the venue). The Huanan market, the study’s authors wrote, “might have acted as an amplifier” for the epidemic. But “more work involving international coordination” would be needed to suss out the “real origins of SARS-CoV-2.”
The wording of that report baffled many scientists in Europe, North America, and Australia, several of whom had, almost exactly 24 hours after the release of the China CDC preprint, published early versions of their own studies, concluding that the Huanan market was the pandemic’s probable epicenter—and that SARS-CoV-2 might have made its hop into humans from the venue twice at the end of 2019. Itching to get their hands on China CDC’s raw data, some of the researchers took to regularly trawling GISAID, occasionally at odd hours—the only reason that Florence Débarre, an evolutionary biologist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, spotted the sequences pinging onto the server late last Thursday night with no warning or fanfare.
Within hours of downloading the data and starting their own analysis, the researchers found their suspicions confirmed. Several surfaces in and around one stall at the market, including a cart and a defeathering machine, produced virus-positive samples that also contained genetic material from raccoon dogs—in a couple of cases, at higher concentrations than of human genomes. It was Stall 29—the same spot where Holmes had snapped the photo of the raccoon dog, nearly a decade before.
Slam-dunk evidence for a raccoon-dog host—or another animal—could still emerge. In the hunt for the wild source of MERS, another coronavirus that caused a deadly outbreak in 2012, researchers were eventually able to identify the pathogen in camels, which are thought to have caught their initial infection from bats—and which still harbor the virus today; a similar story has played out for Nipah virus, which hopscotched from bats to pigs to us.
[Read: Bird flu leaves the world with an existential choice]
Proof of that caliber, though, may never turn up for SARS-CoV-2. (Nailing wild origins is rarely simple: Despite a years-long search, the wild host for Ebola still has not been definitively pinpointed.) Which leaves just enough ambiguity to keep debate about the pandemic’s origins running, potentially indefinitely. Skeptics will likely be eager to poke holes in the team’s new findings—pointing out, for instance, that it’s technically possible for genetic material from viruses and animals to end up sloshed together in the environment even if an infection didn’t take place. Maybe an infected human visited the market and inadvertently deposited viral RNA near an animal’s crate.
But an infected animal, with no third-party contamination, still seems by far the most plausible explanation for the samples’ genetic contents, several experts told me; other scenarios require contortions of logic and, more important, additional proof. Even prior to the reveal of the new data, Gronvall told me, “I think the evidence is actually more sturdy for COVID than it is for many others.” The strength of the data might even, in at least one way, best what’s available for SARS-CoV-1: Although scientists have isolated SARS-CoV-1-like viruses from a wet-market-traded mammal host, the palm civet, those samples were taken months after the outbreak began—and the viral variants found weren’t exactly identical to the ones in human patients. The versions of SARS-CoV-2 tugged out of several Huanan-market samples, meanwhile, are a dead ringer for the ones that sickened humans with COVID early on.
The debate over SARS-CoV-2’s origins has raged for nearly as long as the pandemic itself—outlasting lockdowns, widespread masking, even the first version of the COVID vaccines. And as long as there is murkiness to cling to, it may never fully resolve. While evidence for an animal spillover has mounted over time, so too have questions about the possibility that the virus escaped from a laboratory. When President Joe Biden asked the U.S. intelligence community to review the matter, four government agencies and the National Intelligence Council pointed to a natural origin, while two others guessed that it was a lab leak. (None of these assessments were made with high confidence; a bill passed in both the House and the Senate would, 90 days after it becomes a law, require the Biden administration to declassify underlying intelligence.)
If this new level of scientific evidence does conclusively tip the origins debate toward the animal route, it will be, in one way, a major letdown. It will mean that SARS-CoV-2 breached our borders because we once again mismanaged our relationship with wildlife—that we failed to prevent this epidemic for the same reason we failed, and could fail again, to prevent so many of the rest.
Vaccine equity campaigners said Thursday that a new peer-reviewed study published in a major medical journal should put to rest the pharmaceutical industry’s “false narrative” that its own investments were responsible for the rapid development of mRNA vaccines to fight the coronavirus pandemic.
The study, published in The BMJ on Wednesday, estimates that the U.S. federal government has invested at least $31.9 billion in the development, production, and purchase of mRNA coronavirus vaccines—a finding that the People’s Vaccine Alliance said undercuts pharmaceutical companies’ attempts to take credit for the innovations that made the lifesaving shots possible.
“Pharmaceutical companies have sold a false narrative to the public; that it was their investment which gave us mRNA vaccines and that they deserve the $75 billion profit made from Covid-19 vaccines. As this research shows, that claim is a total myth,” Mohga Kamal-Yanni, policy co-lead for the People’s Vaccine Alliance, said in a statement Thursday.
“Without public investment, there would be no mRNA vaccines. Yet just three pharmaceutical companies have been handed monopolies on this lifesaving public science,” Kamal-Yanni continued. “These are the people’s vaccines, and the technology behind them should be shared with the world.”
The new study, which tracks U.S. public investments in mRNA vaccine technology dating back decades, identifies 34 National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded research grants that were “directly related to mRNA Covid-19 vaccines.”
The authors summarized their findings:
Pre-pandemic, the NIH invested $116 million (35%) in basic and translational science related to mRNA vaccine technology, and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) ($148 million; 44%) and the Department of Defense ($72 million; 21%) invested in vaccine development. After the pandemic started, $29.2 billion (92%) of U.S. public funds purchased vaccines, $2.2 billion (7%) supported clinical trials, and $108 million (
These public investments translated into millions of lives saved and were crucial in developing the mRNA vaccine technology that also has the potential to tackle future pandemics and to treat diseases beyond Covid-19. To maximize overall health impact, policymakers should ensure equitable global access to publicly funded health technologies.
Though their successes were enabled at every step by government support, pharmaceutical companies—including Moderna and Pfizer, the manufacturers of the two available mRNA Covid-19 vaccines—have resisted the notion that federal research and funding was critical to the rapid development of coronavirus shots.
Speaking to Barron’s in July 2020, before any coronavirus vaccines had received emergency authorization, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla scoffed at the notion that pharmaceutical companies should forgo any profits from coronavirus vaccines and therapeutics.
“I think it’s very wrong. You need to be very fanatic and radical to say something like that right now,” Bourla said. “Who is finding the solution? The private sector found the solution for diagnostics, and the private sector found the solution for therapeutics and is along [the] way to find more solutions for therapeutics and vaccines.”
Pfizer posted $31.4 billion in profits in 2022, a sum advocates condemned as “sickening”—particularly as many people in low-income countries still lack access to coronavirus vaccines.
While Moderna’s billionaire CEO Stéphane Bancel has acknowledged that “we didn’t do this alone” and that government financial backing played an important role in the development of Covid-19 vaccines, the company is fighting with the NIH over patent rights to spike-protein technology that is central to the mRNA shots.
The New York Times reported last month that Moderna recently agreed to make a $400 million payment for using a chemical technique that was developed with government funding. The payment will be shared by the NIH and two U.S. universities involved in the invention of the technique.
But the Times noted that “Moderna is still locked in a separate high-stakes dispute with the NIH over who invented the central component of the vaccine, the genetic sequence that helps recipients produce an immune response.”
Peter Maybarduk, director of the Access to Medicines program at Public Citizen, said in response to Moderna’s $400 million payment that it “amounts to little more than 1% of its $36 billion in global sales.”
“Considering Moderna’s soup-to-nuts reliance on U.S. government support, the public deserves a much better deal, including vaccines made available free or at cost today,” said Maybarduk. “The government should have insisted on affordability from the start, and should insist on essentially free vaccines today. There would be no NIH-Moderna vaccine without the NIH.”
The People’s Vaccine Alliance and Oxfam International echoed that sentiment in a statement last week as a World Health Organization body kicked off negotiations over an international pandemic accord.
“Medical technologies related to pathogens with pandemic potential must be treated as global common goods—be available to all who need them at the same time,” the groups said. “Global common goods must take precedence over private commercial interests.”
If we don’t care about prisoners on any normal day, then why would we care about them when a pandemic is spreading through the system?
The first comprehensive study of prisoner deaths during the Covid era shows that deaths in federal and state prisons rose nearly 50 percent during the first year of the pandemic, and in six states, they more than doubled.
The New York Times reports that deaths in America’s prisons during 2020 showed more than twice the increase compared to deaths in the United States overall, and they even exceeded deaths in nursing homes, which were among the hardest hit sectors across the country.
The Times found that it was not just the fact that Covid swept through already overcrowded prisons. It was also that prisoners are routinely subjected to substandard medical care. That’s the norm. That, coupled with crowded facilities and an aging inmate population combined to make the worst public health crisis in American prisons since the 1918-1919 Spanish flu pandemic.
And the states with the highest death rates are the states with the worst prison conditions, the worst medical care and the longest sentences: Alabama, Arkansas, South Carolina and West Virginia. In all of those states deaths in 2020 were up more than 100 percent over the previous year.
As an aside, the federal prisoner death numbers are incomplete. Despite a 2013 law that requires the federal Bureau of Prisons to keep data on deaths, health and safety, the BOP stopped doing that in 2019, citing bureaucratic changes within the Justice Department. Don’t like the law? Just ignore it. Nobody will do anything about it.
“Public health is freeing the aged in Pa’s prisons.” Philadelphia protest on June 7, 2020, calling on Pennsylvania Gov. Wolf to free vulnerable prisoners during Covid. (Joe Piette, Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)
A companion study of American prisons is showing that the prison population nationwide is aging significantly. Due primarily to tough sentencing laws during the 1980s and 1990s, Americans are incarcerated for longer and longer periods.
In 2009, about 10 percent of all prisoners were 50 or older. By 2019, that portion had jumped to 21 percent. According to the Department of Justice, prisoners are considered to be “elderly” by the time they reach 50. Their lifespans are shortened by their years in prison, and, in many cases by drug abuse, poverty and a lack of appropriate medical care.
High rates of depression, obesity and suicide make the situation even worse. For example, of the 46 prisoners who died in West Virginia in 2020, 42 were older than 50. In Michigan, which has the oldest prison population in the country, 90 percent of the 248 prisoners who died in 2020 were older than 50.
Aerial view of Federal Correctional Institution, Loretto, Pennsylvania. (Prison Insight/Flickr, CC BY 2.0)
I spent my 50th birthday in the Federal Correctional Institution at Loretto, Pennsylvania, after blowing the whistle on the C.I.A.’s torture program.
On the day that I arrived there, the prison, which was designed to hold 675 prisoners, instead held 1,425. Cells built for four men held six or eight, and bunkbeds lined the halls.
“Health care” was provided by physicians’ assistants from the National Health Service, a bureau of the Department of Health and Human Services. After nearly a year without a doctor, we finally got a disgraced physician from Cleveland who had had his license temporarily suspended after he was accused of taking liberties with a child.
No matter a prisoner’s malady, the go-to medication in prison was Tylenol (acetaminophen). I can tell you that I personally saw four prisoners just in my housing unit die in the 23 months I was in prison, all from undiagnosed cancers. You can be sure, though, that they had all been prescribed Tylenol by the incompetent boobs in charge of taking care of them.
Near the end of my sentence, an African man in the cell next to me was diagnosed with tuberculosis. He wasn’t isolated. He wasn’t moved to a cell in the medical unit. And none of us were provided with masks. When I asked the physician’s assistant to whom I was assigned what to do, he said, “I guess just hold your breath when you walk past him.” That’s healthcare in the American prison system.
Living facilities in California State Prison, July 19, 2006. (California Department of Corrections, Wikimedia Commons)
If it sounds like I’m being harsh about the federal prison healthcare system, let me tell you that the state and local prison systems are even worse. Look at it this way: Many state and local prisons are private; managed by for-profit companies that the states and localities hire to cut costs. How do these prisons cut costs? They do it by cutting the money spent on food and on medical care. Animal-grade food costs less than human-grade food, and it’s served in prisons across America every day.
And when a prisoner needs a name-brand or otherwise expensive medication, you either let him have it, which happens rarely, or let him die, which happens daily. If nobody cares about America’s incarcerated men and women and there is no price to pay when they die due to neglect, then there’s no reason to change the policy.
If we don’t care about prisoners on any normal day, then why would we care about them when Covid is spreading through our prison systems? I was shocked by The New York Times report, but I wasn’t surprised. I doubt anybody else who knows about mass incarceration in this country was either.
The rate of deaths in U.S. prisons during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic increased dramatically, as lawmakers largely ignored the effect of the pandemic on imprisoned people, a grim new analysis found. According to data from researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles, deaths in state and federal prisons rose by nearly 50 percent during the first year of the pandemic…
More than 200m people treated for virus and death rate now ‘lowest in the world’, says government
The Chinese government has declared a “decisive victory” in the battle against Covid-19, claiming it had created “a miracle in the history of human civilisation” in successfully steering China through the global pandemic.
The comments were made at a meeting presided over by President Xi Jinping on Thursday. The government said more than 200 million people had been treated for Covid and that China’s death rate from coronavirus was “the lowest level in the world”.
As a deadly strain of avian influenza continues to decimate bird populations around the world and spread among other animals, some scientists are warning that mammal-to-mammal transmission has emerged as a real possibility with potentially catastrophic consequences for humans.
Over the past year, officials in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada have detected cases of the highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu in a variety of species, including bears, foxes, otters, raccoons, and skunks. Last month, a cat suffered serious neurological symptoms from a late 2022 infection, according to French officials who said that the virus showed genetic characteristics consistent with adaptation to mammals.
Most of these infections are likely the result of mammals eating infected birds, according to Jürgen Richt, director of the Center on Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases at Kansas State University.
More alarming, multiple researchers argue, was the large outbreak of H5N1 on a Spanish mink farm last October, which could mark the first known instance of mammal-to-mammal transmission.
“Farmworkers began noticing a spike in deaths among the animals, with sick minks experiencing an array of dire symptoms like loss of appetite, excessive saliva, bloody snouts, tremors, and a lack of muscle control,” CBC News reported Thursday. “Eventually, the entire population of minks was either killed or culled—more than 50,000 animals in total.”
“A virus which has evolved on a mink farm and subsequently infects farmworkers exposed to infected animals is a highly plausible route for the emergence of a virus capable of human-to-human transmission to emerge.”
A study published two weeks ago in Eurosurveillance, a peer-reviewed journal of epidemiological research, described the outbreak and its public health implications. Notably, the authors wrote that their findings “indicate that an onward transmission of the virus to other minks may have taken place in the affected farm.”
As CBC News noted, “That’s a major shift, after only sporadic cases among humans and other mammals over the last decade.”
Michelle Wille, a University of Sydney researcher who focuses on the dynamics of wild bird viruses, told the Canadian outlet that “this outbreak signals the very real potential for the emergence of mammal-to-mammal transmission.”
It’s just one farm and none of the workers—all of whom wore personal protective equipment—were infected. However, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist, warned Thursday that if the virus mutates in a way that enables it to become increasingly transmissible between mammals, including humans, “it could have deadly consequences.”
“This is an infection that has epidemic and pandemic potential,” Bogoch told CBC News. “I don’t know if people recognize how big a deal this is.”
A “mass mortality event” involving roughly 2,500 endangered seals found off the coast of Russia’s Caspian Sea last month has also raised alarm.
According to Phys.org:
A researcher at Russia’s Dagestan State University, Alimurad Gadzhiyev, said last week that early samples from the seals “tested positive for bird flu,” adding that they were still studying whether the virus caused the die-off.
Peacock warned there have been mixed reports from Russia about the seals, which could have contracted the virus by eating infected seabirds.
But if the seals did give bird flu to each other it “would be yet another very concerning development,” he added.
“The mink outbreaks, the increased number of infections of scavenger mammals, and the potential seal outbreak would all point to this virus having the potential to cause a pandemic” in humans, he said.
Among birds, the mortality rate of H5N1 can approach 100%, ravaging wild bird populations and poultry farms alike. The World Organization for Animal Health told BBC News on Thursday that it has recorded almost 42 million cases of H5N1 in wild and domestic birds since the current outbreak started in October 2021. Another 193 million domestic birds have been culled in an attempt to curb transmission.
The highly pathogenic strain of avian flu also frequently causes death in other mammals, including humans. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), nearly 870 cases of H5N1 were reported in humans from 2003 to 2022 and they resulted in at least 457 deaths—a fatality rate that exceeds 50%.
The virus has “not acquired the ability for sustained transmission among humans,” the WHO stated last month. “Thus the likelihood of human-to-human spread is low.”
However, a December report from the U.K. Health Security Agency warned that the “rapid and consistent acquisition of the mutation in mammals may imply this virus has a propensity to cause zoonotic infections,” meaning that it could jump to humans.
Dr. Wenqing Zhang, head of the WHO’s global influenza program, told BBC News on Thursday that the threat posed by the virus spilling over “is very concerning and the risk has been increasing over the years as reflected in the number of outbreaks in animals as well as a number of infections in humans.”
“We’re closely related to minks and ferrets, in terms of influenza risks… If it’s propagating to minks, and killing minks, it’s worrisome to us.”
As CBC News reported this week: “Most human infections also appeared to involve people having direct contact with infected birds. Real-world mink-to-mink transmission now firmly suggests H5N1 is now ‘poised to emerge in mammals,’ Wille said—and while the outbreak in Spain may be the first reported instance of mammalian spread, it may not be the last.”
Wille warned that “a virus which has evolved on a mink farm and subsequently infects farmworkers exposed to infected animals is a highly plausible route for the emergence of a virus capable of human-to-human transmission to emerge.”
Louise Moncla, an assistant professor of pathobiology at the University of Pennsylvania, told the outlet that viruses often adapt to new host species through an “intermediary host.”
“And so what’s concerning about this is that this is exactly the kind of scenario you would expect to see that could lead to this type of adaptation, that could allow these viruses to replicate better in other mammals—like us,” Moncla explained.
The alarm bells sounded this week echo long-standing warnings about the growing prospects of a devastating bird flu pandemic.
In his 2005 book, The Monster at Our Door, the late historian Mike Davis wrote that “the essence of the avian flu threat… is that a mutant influenza of nightmarish virulence—evolved and now entrenched in ecological niches recently created by global agro-capitalism—is searching for the new gene or two that will enable it to travel at pandemic velocity through a densely urbanized and mostly poor humanity.”
Alluding to the “constantly evolving nature of influenza viruses,” the WHO recently stressed “the importance of global surveillance to detect and monitor virological, epidemiological, and clinical changes associated with emerging or circulating influenza viruses that may affect human (or animal) health, and timely virus-sharing for risk assessment.”
To avert a cataclysmic bird flu pandemic, scientists have also emphasized the need to ramp up H5N1 vaccine production, with Wille pointing out that “a very aggressive and successful poultry vaccination campaign ultimately stopped all human cases” of the H7N9 strain of the virus in the early 2010s.
Others have also criticized the global fur farming industry, citing the spread of bird flu as well the coronavirus among cruelly confined minks.
“We’re closely related to minks and ferrets, in terms of influenza risks,” Dr. Jan Hajek, an infectious diseases physician at Vancouver General Hospital, told CBC News. “If it’s propagating to minks, and killing minks, it’s worrisome to us.”
January 20, 2023 Length:4560 words
In December 2019, the police in Wuhan, China, issued a news release about “medical staff fabricating rumors about the discovery of SARS.” Within the following month, the world was shocked by the outbreak of New Crown Pneumonia in Wuhan. The paralysis and incompetence of the Chinese government in responding to public health and safety incidents was exposed. With the principle of “everything for stability,” the Chinese government immediately closed the entire city of Wuhan and gradually extended the epidemic containment policy to the whole country.
Although the policy differed from province to province, almost everyone was subjected to it: confinement to their homes, strict community rules on the number of times they could go out each week; increasingly high prices for consumer goods, and even a lack of food in areas where the epidemic was severe; if an infected person was found in a community, the patient would be isolated (later on, the conditions of isolation became worse and worse, even without medication and beds for the patient). The community as well as the patient would be isolated, safe distances were guaranteed, and the community, as well as the county in which it was located, would be completely closed off. The government made it compulsory for everyone to have regular nucleic acid tests, which had to be done almost daily for a long period of time. School children were unable to return home after the holidays; workers and some petty bourgeoisie who were out of work at home had no source of income; small business owners went out of business or even went bankrupt as they have fewer and fewer customers; even a section of capitalists with fewer assets were threatened with bankruptcy.
The policies pursued by the Chinese government in 2020-2021 were a short-lived victory, relying on the continuation of campaign-based governance (large-scale closures even became the norm). During this period, the authorities promoted “dynamic zeroing,” the failure of Western bourgeois democracy, and China’s “institutional self-confidence” and “great spirit of resistance to the epidemic.” But the seeds of the 2022 crisis are buried in this success. Because of the sluggish economy, the government had to sacrifice the living conditions of the masses in order to maintain the containment policy, which was the source of public discontent; because of the greater financial and administrative power of local governments (and the influence of moderate factions within the Communist Party), some local governments (especially those that were economically backward) relaxed their epidemic prevention policies to a limited extent from 2022 onwards, but this led to the even-faster spread of the mutated virus. To counter it, the central government again continued to give instructions to the localities, which had to continue to sacrifice the living conditions of the masses to keep their finances in balance.
It was the Chinese bourgeoisie itself that caused the mass movement at the end of 2022.
Zhengzhou is the capital of Henan Province (China’s most populous province), a city that is both a hub for rail transport in China and a leader in manufacturing. Since 2010, Foxconn has signed a cooperation agreement with the Henan provincial government to build a vast system of factories in Zhengzhou. According to the most important official mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, the Zhengzhou Foxconn factory had at its best produced more than half of the world’s Apple phones, driving more than one million local jobs and training a cumulative total of more than three million skilled workers. In addition, the industrial transformation undertaken by Zhengzhou, the provincial capital, has made Foxconn the sole industrial pillar of the entire city.
In October, there were numerous claims that the epidemic had also reached the Foxconn factory campus, and there were reports that workers had to work with illnesses and were often not allowed to go out for leisure. Eventually the Foxconn factory, which was already accused of practicing a sweatshop system, was met with a revolt from workers—many fled the factory and began walking home on foot from the motorway. The factory was forced to send workers back to their hometowns due to pressure. As a result, in November 2022, Foxconn announced an urgent need to recruit 100,000 workers due to “employee resignations.” This was partly because many people had given up their jobs and the factory had to recruit in large numbers to meet the demand for the new Apple phones, and partly because the three-year epidemic closure policy had led to the closure of many small industries in Zhengzhou (and indeed the whole country)—in some places less than half of the shops in the whole shopping street were still open! The government had to opt for a massive restart of industrial production. In order to support the industrial backbone of Zhengzhou as a whole, Foxconn factories claim to be offering their workers “the best deal in a decade”: an hourly wage of 30 RMB (until 15 February 2023); extra bonuses for perfect attendance; and improved living conditions for workers. Not only are Foxconn factories recruiting nationwide, but the Henan provincial government has also mobilized a pool of strong rural labor, unemployed youth, grassroots Communist Party cadres and even ex-soldiers. Some local governments have even set clear targets for recruitment. Attracted by the vigorous operation of the state machinery and the generous remuneration, the Foxconn factory achieved its target of recruiting 100,000 workers in five days.
However, after the workers arrived at the factory, the capitalists quickly changed their attitude and broke the original high-tech contract, trying to “put the labor issue on hold” in order to start work as soon as possible. What is even more frightening is that a crack has finally emerged in the official, so-called dynamic zero-zero defense [against Covid]. As a result of the rush to gather labor from all over the country to resume work and production as soon as possible, a large number of workers were infected with the new coronavirus, which began to spread on a large scale on November 20. The bourgeoisie, however, did not show any mercy to the sick “workforce” and on November 21, when work resumed at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant, a large number of workers who tested positive refused to go to work because of their illness, while workers who tested negative demanded to “return to work after the plant has been cleared” because of their fear of their disease. The workers also demanded that the factory be cleared before they could return to work because of their fear of illness, and produced labor contracts stating that if the zero-Covid policy could not be implemented, the employer would have to pay the relevant amount as stated in the contract.
Invalid contracts, heavy labor; an out-of-control epidemic, a false zeroing out; an angry working class and a bourgeoisie bent on preserving its own interests and in collusion with the bureaucratic clique. These finally led to the intensification of the conflict and the beginning of the struggle. On the night of November 22, the workers, whose negotiations with the capitalists had broken down, directly launched a violent struggle, gathering inside the factory and launching a storming of the management area inside the factory. From November 22 to 23, the Henan government mobilized a large police force in the vicinity of the factory. There were violent clashes between the workers and the police: both sides attacked each other with sticks. Some video footage shows how the wall of police was beaten back by the agitated workers. On the morning of the 24th, the Foxconn factory finally gave in to the workers and gave each of them 10,000 RMB before sending them home. There have been some scattered struggles around the Foxconn factory since then, but the overall situation has calmed down.
Three things are noteworthy in this struggle: 1) apart from the ordinary civilian police, the armed police, who are part of the national defense force, have also been deployed in a massive crackdown, which means that this movement, although still pursuing economic interests, has gone beyond those legitimate struggles of the past in the eyes of the authorities; 2) instead of wearing their own uniforms, the police are all wearing the protective clothing of medical personnel. Symbolically, the government itself unveiled the class nature of the anti-epidemic policy: the defense of the state apparatus in the interests of the bureaucratic-capitalist alliance (or more precisely, the fusion of Chinese bureaucrats and capitalists as a whole into one class, not just an alliance), rather than the communist propaganda of “serving the people”; 3) The workers have not set up their own organizations (which is also unrealistic, as most of them only work short hours), nor have they created or used traditional media (newspapers, leaflets, etc.), but have used short videos or live broadcasts through software platforms like Tik-Tok to carry out spontaneous propaganda activities. This shows both the creativity and the immaturity of the workers: the software used by the workers has always been considered by the intellectuals a “hedonistic tool to corrupt the minds of the people,” but their use has forced the intellectuals to reflect on their superior attitude; but while the workers broadcast their violent struggle against the capitalists and government policies, they thank those who rewarded the viewers of the broadcast. The consciousness of the masses remains mixed. More importantly, no Marxist ideological group has intervened in this workers’ movement—in fact, there is no strictly Marxist organization in China at present.
Another issue of concern is the relationship between the Foxconn workers’ movement and the subsequent protests. As will be discussed below, there is a certain disconnect between the heroic actions of the workers and the protests of the university students and citizens. Indeed, most people are only aware of the Urumqi fires and not the Foxconn workers’ movement, and the workers’ actions had only a small impact on the student movement in a limited journalistic sense.
After the end of the Foxconn workers’ movement, a fire suddenly broke out in Urumqi, the provincial capital of Xinjiang, on the evening of the 24th. Officials claim that only 10 people died, but the citizens of Urumqi (through their WeChat App, rather than underground newspapers) generally question this result. The masses believe that the death toll is far greater than the official figure and that officials must be held responsible for the deaths; some claim that the authorities were unable to get the fire brigade close to the building, in line with the anti-epidemic policy, and that people were burned alive because the access doors to the residential building were blocked. When the official press release said that the matter was not serious, there were many skeptical voices on the internet.
Urumqi citizens spontaneously mourned the dead, which later turned into a protest that took to the streets. At one point the protesting citizens stormed the front of the city government building, which prevented the leaders of the Urumqi government from engaging in dialogue with the crowd, a first for China in the 21st century. On the following day, the 26th, the Urumqi municipal government declared the epidemic “zeroed,” ending the closure of the city that had begun on August 10th, and the whole of Xinjiang was gradually allowed to enter and exit freely.
Many Chinese analysts—largely Liberals, but also some Marxists—claim that this signifies an awakening in this minority Uyghur province and a direct revolt against Chinese Communist rule, but the true reaction of the masses is far from being summed up in this way. In fact, under decades of rule, an increasing number of Han Chinese—the main ethnic group in China—have been pouring into northern Xinjiang, outnumbering even the native minorities. It is true that the ethnic minorities are subject to more government control—for example, their passports have to be stored in police stations and cannot be used at will—but in this instance it cannot be said that ethnic sentiment among the minorities was mobilized, let alone that the citizens of Urumqi saw themselves in rebellion against the Chinese Communist Party. Even when the marching crowd broke through the police and rushed to the city hall building, they still sang the Chinese national anthem. In one iconic photograph, citizens representing the resistance still held up the Chinese flag.
In fact, discontent with the “zero-covid” policy—and furthermore, disquiet over the economic crisis, as the lower-class masses were denied access to the workplace and lost their work income—was the main cause of the events in Urumqi and the series that followed.
The events in Urumqi set off a wave of protests across the country, and on November 26, students at Nanjing Media College spontaneously mourned the victims of the Urumqi fire and held up [pieces of] white paper in protest. In the days that followed, 207 schools across the country saw posters of protest or gatherings of protest.
The consciousness of the students was more complex, but remained primarily opposed to the “zeroing” policy—students entering university from 2019 onwards have had little freedom to go out throughout their university life. On the basis of this common consciousness, a number of universities have seen the emergence of the liberal slogan that appeared in Beijing’s Sithongqiao on the eve of the 20th Communist Party Congress: “No to Cultural Revolution but Reform.” These liberals believe that the Chinese authorities are following the old path of the Maoist era. But there was also the singing of the International and chanting of “Long Live the People” (a famous phrase used by Mao himself)” in the universities. Surprisingly, seven of China’s “Eight Great Academies” took part in the event; the only one that did not was the Sichuan Academy of Fine Arts, which was put under martial law around November 21 after someone wrote the slogan “Down with Xi Jinping” on the walls of the school. An impressive poster at the Central Academy of Fine Arts, based on a poster from Mao’s time, read, “If art does not interfere with politics, it will die because of political interference.” In some universities, statues of Chen Duxiu, ([the co-founder of the Chinese Communist Party, purged by Mao in 1927] who was suddenly brought back from the margins of history thanks to a TV series in 2021), Lu Xun (considered the greatest Chinese leftist writer and the “National Spirit” of China) and Nie Er (one of the authors of the Chinese national anthem) were also used by students to create political-artistic works.
Some Chinese Marxists did intervene in personally in the university protests, but on the whole those who sang the International and commemorated Mao were not all Marxist in orientation; this group of students was just as likely to be extremely opposed to the ethnic migration of Blacks into in Guangzhou as favoring the overthrow of the government. The International and Mao can be symbols of both revolutionary Marxists in China and of the “old Maoist left” who want the government to reform itself and move back to the path of “real socialism.”
Of those schools that had protests, media and art schools, which are considered to lack a tradition of humanistic criticism, tended to have larger protests, while those universities that are considered to be better (the so-called 211 and 985 universities) rarely protested. Peking University and Tsinghua University are considered to be China’s top institutions, but student protests there are far from comparable to those at Nanjing Media College; meanwhile the university acts in the first instance to continually pacify students and prevent anything from escalating into protests. The only exception may be Renmin University of China: students at this school, once considered to be in the conservative camp, staged a massive protest that directly secured the partial unsealing of the school.
Eventually, to prevent students from further inflaming the situation, the university decided to let students go home for an early holiday.
The students’ protests took place at a time when there were massive citizen protests in all of China’s major cities: Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Lanzhou and Chengdu. The most famous incident took place in Shanghai. The city has a road called “Urumqi Middle Road,” where citizens gathered spontaneously to mourn and protest. Here, for the first time, the crowd chanted “Down with Xi Jinping, down with the Communist Party,” followed by Chengdu, a large city in western China. The mass protests in Beijing were equally loud. In addition to the usual protests, the traditional Stalinist-Maoists in China were boosted by an anarchist sympathizer with Mao who urged the masses, “Down with revisionism, we want a democratic Communist Party.” The protests in the cities also affected Chinese students abroad, who launched protests all over the world. Like the citizens of Urumqi, the mass movement remained vague about its aims, even though the citizens of Shanghai and Chengdu raised the slogans “Down with the Communist Party” and “Down with the dictatorship.” The Chinese people, who have been ruled by political indifference for more than 30 years (since 1989), are still naive enough to fiercely raise one slogan when a movement breaks out, only to move on to something much more moderate, or perhaps even to the exact opposite. Just think about shouting down the Communists while holding up a portrait of Mao Zedong.
While the citizens of these major cities acted and set off a groundswell of discussion on the internet (and for Chinese people, mainly on Twitter, which is officially banned), the impact of the events on the whole country should not be overestimated. With a land area of 9.6 million square kilometers and a population of 1.4 billion, the population and area occupied by these major cities is not that large. More importantly, because the events depended on local sentiment towards local prevention and control policies, the vast rural areas and other large cities where the epidemic was not serious (such as Chongqing, a city of at least 10 million people) did not feel the strong political shock. This is not only because mass discontent was greatly influenced by the intensity and contingency of the prevention and control policy, but because people in the rural areas had no idea what was happening in the cities: the Chinese government’s control of speech led to a blockage of information, and those young people and intellectuals with access to information and political enthusiasm, even if it is vague, tend to congregate in the big cities. In this sense, China’s vast frontier is fragmented: the noisy big cities dominate the political movements and are visible to outsiders, while the silent vast countryside is often overlooked. On the other hand, the spatial separation of the masses from each other prevents the lower classes from forming a common anti-capitalist front, and even workers find it difficult to form some kind of network of contacts across regions (let alone nationwide).
On December, 7 the Chinese government issued a new “Ten Articles of Prevention” which removed all mandatory nucleic acid requirements and mandatory quarantine restrictions. Naturally, this meant “Living Together” with COVID-19 in China.
The Chinese Ministry of Health claimed on December 24 that there were 4,103 new cases in the country on a single day, compared to 31 in Shandong province, but according to an official in Qingdao (a city in Shandong), there were some 500,000 new cases in Qingdao on a single day! The policy and ideological reversal have provoked violent reactions in all sectors of society: there is anger at the manipulation of medicine by capitalists, doubts about the policy shift, fear of the virus, etc.
The “Living Together” policy shift has made Chinese society a more fractured one and is substantial evidence of the fusion of bureaucratic decision-making groups with the bourgeoisie and the bourgeois character of its political decision-making. Here, scientific standards of prevention and control and a rational understanding of the virus can only serve the needs of bourgeois profit production and capital appreciation—that is, the reproduction of capitalist relations of production. The official media have invented a term: pyrotechnics. It symbolizes the “full recovery” of the tertiary sector, especially the catering and entertainment industry, after “Living Together.” At the same time, capitalists from the coastal provinces were the first to fly abroad in search of manufacturing orders.
But when the economy recovered in full, who bore the cost? Naturally, it was the Chinese proletariat. Employees and manufacturing workers and millions of healthcare workers were told to work with maximum efficiency in the production [for the sake of the bourgeoisie. Many have paid with their lives, for example, the sudden death of Chen Moumou, a 23-year-old clinical postgraduate student at West China Hospital, who was positive with a disease on December 14.
This is the blood debt of the Chinese bourgeoisie.
On January 7, more than a thousand workers in Chongqing were laid off from their jobs at a factory producing antigen testing kits. The angry workers smashed machinery, burned the goods they produced, mobbed the factory’s senior management and its agents (the absolute majority of the workers had been recruited by labor companies, which were also responsible for their wages) and clashed violently with the police who came to maintain order.
Less than an hour before these lines were written, the capitalists had compromised with the Chongqing workers and the police had largely withdrawn from the factory.
Until 2022, economic struggles waged by the Chinese proletariat usually ended in government mediation, but from the Foxconn factory movement until the Chongqing workers’ riots today (January 7), the proletariat’s economic struggle has increasingly taken the form of large-scale violent clashes, a new form that indicates a new phase in the workers’ struggle and poses a serious task for Chinese Marxists.
The Chinese leftists we are talking about here are not the university professors (some of whom are called “New Leftists”), nor are they reformists who want the government to return automatically to the path of “real socialism.” For half of the world that enjoys bourgeois democracy, the form of existence of the Chinese left is necessarily very strange.
In 2017-2018, two more serious Marxist groups formed in China, both followers of Stalin and Mao, hoping to bring down the current capitalist China through a new revolution. But since the defeat of the Shenzhen Jias workers’ movement in 2018, both of these Marxist groups have been wiped out by the government. In subsequent years, Marxists have existed only in the form of circles of friends (and often online friends). In other words, there are no real Marxist organizations in China at present, not even local groups. As a result, the Left in the recent movement has been unable to act as a political collective and at best has been able to guide the surrounding masses as individuals.
Ideologically, it is possible to divide Chinese Marxists into three basic categories. The [first is the] Stalinist-Maoists, who occupy the absolute majority as a historical legacy, who do not have a worldview beyond that of the Soviet Marxists of the Stalinist era and believe that capitalism can be defeated simply by copying the theories of Stalin and Mao. [Second], as a result of the downturn in the workers’ movement and leftwing organizations, some Marxists in 2020 proposed a rethinking of the entire theoretical tradition, introducing Western Marxism and postmodernist philosophy (especially the latter). By denying Lenin and the revolutionary significance of the Russian revolution, these “original Marxists” turned Marxism into a product of research in the academy and opposed the creation of any political organization. What is interesting is that this tendency tends to be particularly keen on studying Zizek as well as cultural criticism. [A third group with a] historical legacy is Trotskyism. The theoretical struggle between Trotskyists and Stalinist-Maoists made may people realize the problems with the latter; but in the last few years, Trotskyist theories have no longer been able to satisfy Chinese Marxists because many of them have read the works of Western Marxists that question Trotskyism. So, while there are still many Trotskyists, they have fulfilled their historical task, which was to confront Stalinism-Maoism when Chinese Marxists were theoretically deficient.
These three groups of Marxists corresponded broadly to the three views on the November mass movement. Most Stalinist-Maoists saw the White Paper movement as an outright “bourgeois color revolution” caused by forces outside the country and that only Marxists should lead the workers’ movement. The academics refused to comment publicly on the situation and had no wish to get involved. Trotskyists and a small group of Stalinist-Maoists (and indeed some marginal Marxists, but they were often very individualistic) wanted to lead the movement themselves, but did not have a clear mandate or sense of organization.
Being entangled in history and the philosophy of the academy, it was practically impossible for the Chinese Left to fulfill the tasks posed by the mass movement. But this does not mean that Chinese Marxism has everywhere fallen into despair: some Marxists on the fringes of leftist circles have put forward their own views. One person who considers himself a Leninist wrote the following.
What is our task? Aspiring academic theorists and impatient practitioners disdain to answer this basic question. The former wrap themselves in revolutionary jargon, the latter self-righteousness blindly launch so-called propaganda and coalition campaigns. The theoreticians despise the practitioners who do not know the fashionable terminology, and the practitioners laugh at the rotten theoreticians. The former set up academic salons for their own amusement, reproducing pathetic academic rubbish (although they often look askance at academia since few are integrated into it), the latter do not understand the meaning of any Marxist organization and stuff all sorts of people in big tents for no good reason, or are stuck in long-dead Stalinist sects, which are nothing more than a repetition of a revolutionary comic fantasy. The two sides that despise each other are merely an endless reproduction of existing structures within the revolutionary movement, unwilling and unable to create a real revolutionary organization (or even its embryonic form).
We must think carefully about this quotidian question. Should we not accept without reservation an unreflected premise? Should we not first ask, who are we? In speaking about the necessity of a vanguard party, Trotsk, criticized those who used the experience of the Social Democratic Party to argue for the building a party of revolutionaries; he asked what is the resemblance between revolutionaries of the 20th century and Social Democratic Party bureaucrats. How can contemporary Marxists ignore the distinctions between themselves and conflate themselves with pseudo-revolutionaries? The question is first and foremost who “we” are.
We are revolutionary Marxists—at this stage—i.e., adhering to party-community relations in the sense of Lenin-Gramsci’s [concept of] leadership (not accepting narrow views of [party] indoctrination or proletarian spontaneity), revolutionary in general (not just transforming ownership of property, but creating new forms of human interaction), the dictatorship of the proletariat as created by the proletariat (whose form is unpredictable but always is based on the principle of self-management).
Determining whether this conclusion is correct still needs to be put to the test of historical practice, and the formation of a new generation of Chinese Marxist organizations is still on the horizon. But in any case, the presence of such voices does not entirely make Chinese Marxism the historical laughing stock that Marx spoke of in Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte; instead, it kindles as a kind of spark.